In the same two weeks this October, two of the biggest commercial real estate firms in the country published their third-quarter reports on Louisville industrial space (warehouses, distribution buildings, and manufacturing space). Cushman & Wakefield said the vacancy rate is 4.8%. CBRE said it is 5.9%. Same city, same quarter, more than a full percentage point apart.

If you own a building, are thinking about buying one, or are trying to decide whether to renew a tenant at today’s rent, that gap matters. Here is why it exists, which number to use for what, and what both reports agree on.

The two numbers, side by side

• Cushman & Wakefield (Commercial Kentucky), posted Oct 14, 2026: overall vacancy 4.8%, up from 4.6% last quarter. About 1.9 million square feet of space was newly occupied in the quarter. About 2.5 million square feet of new buildings were finished, pushing the market’s bulk inventory to 101.7 million square feet. Another 5.0 million square feet is under construction. Bulk rents ticked up from $6.93 to $6.96 per square foot per year.
• CBRE, posted Oct 8, 2026: vacancy 5.9%, up 210 basis points (2.1 percentage points) from a year ago. Availability, a broader measure, is 8.2%. Net absorption was a positive 1.41 million square feet. New leasing was 1.65 million square feet, including one 839,000-square-foot lease. The average asking rent rose seven cents to $6.78 per square foot per year.

Why the vacancy numbers disagree

Neither firm is wrong. They are measuring slightly different things, and three choices explain most of the gap.

1. Which buildings count

Every research shop draws its own box around the market. One may count only buildings above a certain size, or only “bulk” distribution space, while the other folds in smaller flex and manufacturing buildings. Cushman & Wakefield’s headline figures lean on the bulk market (its 101.7 million square foot inventory figure is bulk inventory). CBRE’s report does not publish its building-size cutoff in the summary. A smaller, newer set of buildings will almost always show a different vacancy rate than a bigger, older set.

2. Vacancy vs. availability

“Vacant” means empty right now. “Available” means being marketed, which includes space a tenant is still sitting in but has put up for sublease, and space in buildings that are finished but not yet occupied. CBRE publishes both (5.9% vacant, 8.2% available). Cushman & Wakefield’s 4.8% is a vacancy figure. When you compare reports, make sure you are comparing vacancy to vacancy.

3. When a new building starts counting

Louisville delivered a lot of speculative space this year (buildings put up before a tenant was signed). CBRE says three new speculative buildings are the reason its vacancy rate rose. Whether a brand-new empty building gets counted as vacant the day it is finished, or only once it is formally added to inventory, moves the rate by tenths of a point. With 2.5 million square feet finishing in one quarter, the timing choice alone can explain a chunk of the difference.

What both reports agree on

• Vacancy went up this quarter, and it is up meaningfully from a year ago. Both firms say so.
• The reason is new supply, not tenants leaving. Both show positive absorption (more space filled than emptied): 1.9 million square feet by one count, 1.41 million by the other.
• Rents are still inching up, not falling. $6.96 and $6.78 per square foot are within 18 cents of each other and both moved up.
• More is coming. Five million square feet is under construction, so expect the vacancy rate to keep drifting up through 2027 even if leasing stays healthy.

What it means if you own, buy, or lease here

If you own a leased building: your tenant’s broker is going to quote the higher number (5.9%, or the 8.2% availability figure) at renewal time and ask for concessions. Know both numbers before that meeting. In the submarkets where new bulk buildings landed, the pressure is real. For smaller buildings under about 50,000 square feet, which almost none of the new supply competes with, it mostly is not.

If you are buying: underwrite with the conservative number. If a deal only works at 4.8% vacancy and 3% rent growth, it is not a deal. If it works at 6% to 8% vacancy and flat rent, you have room to be wrong.

If you are a tenant: you have more leverage this quarter than you did a year ago, especially on new bulk space. Ask for free rent, a tenant-improvement allowance, or a shorter term with options.

If you are a small investor looking at two-to-twenty-unit commercial property instead: none of this applies directly. These reports cover warehouse space. The small-balance commercial market in Louisville runs on different numbers, which is why we track it separately on our commercial hub.

How to read any market report after this

• Find the definition. What building sizes and property types are in the box? If the report does not say, the number is a headline, not a tool.
• Check vacancy against vacancy, availability against availability.
• Look at absorption and deliveries together. Rising vacancy with positive absorption means supply is the story. Rising vacancy with negative absorption means demand is the story. Louisville is the first kind right now.
• Use two reports, not one. The truth is usually between them.

We pull both reports every quarter and keep the running comparison on our Louisville commercial real estate market report. If you own an industrial building in Louisville or Southern Indiana and want a plain-English read on what it is worth in this market, use our free commercial property valuation, or text or email Rob at Winner Realty.

Sources: Cushman & Wakefield Louisville Industrial MarketBeat, Q3 2026 (posted October 14, 2026); CBRE Louisville Industrial Figures, Q3 2026 (posted October 8, 2026). Figures as published in each firm’s public summary.